EL Fasher Fun

Situation in El Fasher is still quiet. The official curfew in EL Fasher is still on, although it is not clear if it is 19:00 to 07:00 (according to our staff) or from 20:00 to 07:00 (according to UN sources). However it is, the population is not caring too much and it seems they are out home at least till 21:00. We are respecting the earliest to be in the safe side.

As you know UN and ICRC flights were banned yesterday. The reason seems to be the fear of Khalid Ibrahim traveling in one of those. It is not clear, but it seems that the ban was extended in the afternoon to the commercial flights. No travel permit (road movements) has been given yesterday and today (including ICRC).

Today the airport has been open again and helicopter flights resumed. However the UN plane from Khartoum never came to El Fasher because civil aviation did not give the clearance for the passenger list. And tomorrow? We will see

Once that it seems the situation in Kh has passed, the government is reinforcing the security in El Fasher and North Darfur in general, as they think the rebels in its withdrawal may attack Govermental positions in North Darfur (specially El Fasher). However some of us think that they will chose alternative routes in its way to West Darfur, or to hide in Kordofan. In fact it has been reported JEM movements coming from the East in El Dein (South Darfur). Additionally I do not believe JEM is willing to attack any other place (or at least big towns) in the coming days/weeks. Once it seems to be confirmed that JEM was alone in their attack, the hypothesis of a massive movements of rebel groups against the garrison towns looses credibility. However it has been reported today a big amount of cars in Mellit (North East El Fasher), believed to be JEM but pending of confirmation.

Nevertheless there is an important thing we have to look carefully: On Monday there was an incident in Tawila (town under control of MM with a GoS post, as in Shangil Tobay). The GoS forces (Reserve Police, ex janjawid), harassed civilians and looted and burnt IDP's houses. The triggering fact was the killing of one of the GoS soldiers. The reserve police was called to go to Tawila from El Fasher. It is still not clear if the MM guys were involved in the first incident.
It is still not clear as well if the civilian harassed are Fur or Zawaga. But the worrying thing is that MM has left Tawila (and therefore their control). The GoS is controling now the town. The IDPs in there are very afraid and have run for protection inside the UNAMID compound.

This incident is very important. It could result into the withdrawal of the MM from the government (although MM in Khartoum is telling they support the government). If the systematic harassment of Zawaga (no matter of the clan belonging to JEM faction or to MM one) by the SAF continues, we could see a quick change of the status quo between GoS and MM.

What the MM guys are going to do now is the biggest incognita. They are having fightings with SLA Free Will (other signatory group, quite close to the goverment) in South and North since days ago. Are they going to finally all move to SLA/Unity? Are they going to continue to be together with a government who is harassing Zawagas and who continues basing their defense by use of Janjawid (integreted or not in the so called Reserve Police or Border Army).

MSF-S has reduced their team in Tawila to the essential staff.

We have to wait and see how things evolve at least in the next 48 hours and we have to look at Tawila carefully.

At the moment, and taking the chance that there was a helicopter scheduled to Shangil Tobay this morning, we mange to do a last minute booking to bring Chris to El Fasher, at least till Monday. We also have cancelled any other movement to Shangil and Dar Es Salaam for the rest of the week. There is no relocatable staff right now in Shangil Tobay and we continue our activities through the local staff.